Demon King: New Zealand to China, is it eaten sugar and spit out artillery shells?

[Text/Observer Network Column Author Demon King]

Since the Prime Minister Jiexingda Adene publicly stated in August 2022, since the demands of visiting China, New Zealand has finally got his wish in the past a year after the hardship of China. Prime Minister Chris HipkinsAt the end of the month, led the trade delegation to visit China.Before traveling, Hillkins said that this was the first New Zealand Prime Minister level to visit China since 2016.It sounds like a major iconic event of Sino -Singapore relations.

New Zealand is located in the world. It is also 400 kilometers away from the nearest national Australia. Although the land area is larger than the United Kingdom, the national population is just a Chinese -level city, and the sense of existence on the international stage is not high.However, New Zealand has long been regarded as a model of Sino -Western relations in China for a long time, and has also been regarded as the "most vulnerable part of the Five Eyes Alliance" by the West. At the same time, New Zealand is also an important islands in the South Pacific.The topics are all stakeholders.Many people think that New Zealand is the most friendly country in China in Western countries, but from 2016 to 2023, China -Singapore relations also had a lot of bumps.Therefore, Sino -Singapore relations are actually very observed.

The New Zealand Prime Minister’s trip to China is also a major event before the October election in the October.At this time, the New Zealand Labor Government was stuck with the polls of the largest party of the Wild Party National Party, and the prime minister’s visit to China may affect whether the Labor Party of the ruling party can be re -elected and may affect New Zealand’s diplomatic direction in the next few years. Therefore, New Zealand society is also right.This visit attaches great importance to it.

New Zealand’s mainstream media report titles use "Make or Break" to describe Hipkins’s visit to China, which means a lonely attitude of "unsuccessful, just break up"

Does Sino -new relations have a model function?

New Zealand is the first country in Western developed countries to complete the bilateral negotiations of China to join the WTO. The first country to acknowledge China’s complete market economy position, the first country to reach a free trade agreement with China, and the first to sign the "One Belt One Belt One BeltCountries on the way "related cooperation documents and so on.Many people have associated whether other Western countries will "learn from" New Zealand and compete with Chinese friendly cooperation, but the past facts show that it is difficult to achieve.

In an interview with a Western media in 2021, the New Zealand Minister of Trade Oakna made a statement on the tension between China and Australia, saying that "if (Australia) can follow us, respect (China), pay more attention to diplomacy, and be cautious about wording.Hope to be in a situation similar to (good Sino -Singapore relations). "

But as soon as this statement came out, Oconner was under tremendous pressure from the West, including New Zealand, including New Zealand.The New Zealand media said that Overnor’s remarks were "Fallout", "Under Fire" (Boom Boom) or "Landed HimSelf in Trouble" (let him cause trouble).Even if it is difficult to guarantee, how can other Western countries follow it?

Of course, this incident is enough to explain that the influence of public opinion in Western countries is above the influence of officials. When other forces such as public opinion are escorted, those politicians who seem to be highly important in the Chinese say a few words. In fact, in fact, in fact, in fact, in fact, in fact, in fact, in fact, in fact, in fact, in fact, in factIt is difficult to achieve practical effects.

In the face of the mysterious China in the face of the rise, most Western countries are subjectively resisting their psychology, and they have not worked hard to know China with an open -minded attitude.To coax or intimidate China, there is no interest in researching how to do a good relationship with China, and naturally, it will not pay attention to the so -called "successful experience" dealing with New Zealand and China.

Objectively speaking, those Western countries with "great power", their national conditions are not the same as New Zealand, which are small and widows, so it is difficult to understand the New Zealanders.The New Zealand economy does not have a competitive relationship with China, but it is almost perfect. Therefore, New Zealand took the lead in recognizing China’s complete market economy position, and other Western countries were afraid of China’s competition in various fields, so it was impossible to learn from New Zealand.

The people of New Zealand do not have the ambitions with Chinese hegemony. There are no US military bases in the territory, and they are far from the strategic places for the competition for big powers.EssenceYou must know that the diplomacy of Western countries is not only determined by the ideological camp, but also a comprehensive consideration.

Therefore, individual government officials in New Zealand encourage other Western countries to follow themselves, often becoming some kind of high and widow, or they are considered by the West as "China’ s use of trade influence to differentiates the Western camp ", or it is accusing New Zealand of being a" traitor bought by China."such as.

The author observed that many Chinese people believe that Western politicians are anti -China because they have "never been to China" or "have never seen the real scene of China", and believe that with New Zealand politicians to visit China to improve the relationship between the two countries.In fact, this view is somewhat underestimated by the IQ of Western politicians and the complexity of the struggle with Western public opinion.

There are really a large group of people in the West, but most government officials are not.For example, the Chinese who believed that the former Prime Minister of New Zealand, who was "some anti -China" Jexeda Adene, was actually angry with the West on the topic of "New Crown China Origin", and the Confucian Confucianism was fighting."Angry"; but a politician has a courage and a double punch, and it is often in isolation and helplessness in public opinion. At that time, even the New Zealand Chinese society had no sound or forces united to cooperate with her.

In the end, these politicians were suppressed by the more powerful and united anti -China public opinion to fight back, but they could not join, and they jumped to the anti -China side.In short, the anti -China or pro -Chinese schools of Western politicians are not determined by their "whether they understand China".

Therefore, during this visit to China, Hipkins visited the various market sites in China to show friendship and sincerity. The ultimate role was to make the Chinese happy and conceive some expectations.Once he returns to New Zealand, he still has to face the bloody public opinion battle. In the end, it is difficult to say whether New Zealand’s attitude towards China will really improve.

The New Zealand media’s recent reports on Hipkins’ visits to China are all an attitude of "vigilance" and "questioning". I hope that Hipkins will have enough theoretical to persuade these doubts after returning home, not just playing Tai ChiIn the past, only in this way can the Youhua political path selected by New Zealand more firm.

New Zealand still regards China -Singapore Trade as a "sugar cannonball"

Before visiting China, the New Zealand government and Australia, Canada, Britain, the United States and Japan jointly published a "anti -China statement", which expressed serious concern for the use of "trade -related economic coercion and non -market policies related to trade".Oppose the use of trade and investment measures in an "abuse and arbitrary way to use or threatened to use trade and investment measures to force or affect the foreign government to adopt or not take certain measures, actions or decisions.Hipkins said that New Zealand "has always been very clear against economic coercion. We believe that a system based on rules is that New Zealand has always claimed."

The mainstream media of New Zealand said the statement was "Anti -China Statement"

Obviously, this statement refers to the use of its own trade influence to prevent individual countries from interfere with China’s internal affairs.The "certain measures, actions, or decisions" mentioned in the statement refers to some countries (including New Zealand) that interfere with the United States to interfere with China or discredit China.Based on this statement, looking at the current visit to China, New Zealand obviously hopes that it can not only gain economic markets in the Chinese market, but also follow the United States to accuse China of accusing China in the future.

Due to adherence to the "principles of not interfering with each other" and "peaceful rise" policies, China rarely use military or other interference forces in small country diplomacy to carry out so -called "measures, action or decisions that affect other countries" and safeguard their own interests.This has made "trade influence" almost a bargaining chip that China has often used on diplomatic desks in recent years, and more well -known cases such as Australia or Lithuania.

Since the trade conflict between China and Australia, New Zealand considers itself a monkey that has been a "killing chicken and monkey" in China. In recent years, it has been seeking the so -called "market diversification" to get rid of China’s trade influence.EssenceHowever, as European and American countries have abandoned the strategy of "decoupling China", New Zealand will also abandon the "market diversity theory" that has been hot for many years.

It is expected that after visiting China in the United States, the United States claimed that "we will continue to do things that China do not like", and New Zealand may also have scholarship.This trip did not change too much about New Zealand’s attitude towards China, and still regarded China -Singapore trade as a certain kind of sugar -coated shell. I used to think about it.Go back ", it seems smarter.

However, the author believes that the six countries such as New Zealand and other six countries have a short -sighted behavior of the so -called "trade sticks" in China. It is unrealistic that fantasies to let China abandon trade sanctions in diplomacy.Like the lamb to be slaughtered, so even if the six countries rely on a paper statement or other ways, it really deteriorates China’s so -called "trade coercion", which will only prompt China to be forced to use other ways to protect their own interests.The Safety Agreement in China is actually an example.

What New Zealand needs to do is "respecting China" what I said two years ago, and should not take "interfere with the United States to interfere with the Chinese internal affairs" as a balanced weight to Sino -US relations. This is unfair to China.New Zealand is required to interfere in the US internal affairs.If New Zealand only wants to provoke the opponent’s sensitive nerves in diplomacy and ask the other party to not fight back, this diplomacy will definitely not last long.Of course, I believe the New Zealanders have long known the common sense of this basic interpersonal communication.

Will China be acquiesced in New Zealand "eating sugar and clothing shells"

In recent years, New Zealand has worked hard to deduct the dependence on the Chinese market because of fear of the so -called "trade coercion" of China in recent years, but now it has changed the normal state of saying that it is "developing the Chinese market".It is no longer afraid of "Chinese trade coercion", which symbolizes the termination of the New Zealand’s "decourse Chinese theory" campaign.

Although this transformation in New Zealand still seems to follow Europe and the United States that has just abandoned the "decoupling Chinese theory", for the New Zealand’s trade industry, the New Zealand government’s hostility to the Chinese market is enough to relax the tight political atmosphere in the past.But for New Zealand, this transformation is a bit sudden and lacks the explanation of the people, and the government will inevitably suffer some doubts and pressure.

On June 27, Hipkins was interviewed by a number of mainstream New Zealand media after the talks. From this, you can feel that New Zealand society has high concern to future political trends, but their main concern is not how much New Zealand can make in China.Hipkins were asked the most human rights issues. For example, some reporters asked, "Do you have any difficulties on the issue of human rights to Chinese leaders?" Hipkins said that "there is no deep discussion but I have expressed their position"; The reporter was not very satisfied, and continued to ask "Why hasn’t in -depth discussion" and Hipkins replied, "This talk is only 45 minutes."

Another high -frequency vocabulary in the interview is a "warm and constructive" talks. This is because many Western reporters hope to hear and even deliberately speak from his mouth to prove that China is bullying New Zealand.New Zealand Foreign Minister Marhota visited China in March this year, but was lied by the Western anti -China media that he was "reprimanded by Chinese officials." This statement has been repeatedly denied by the New Zealand government.Therefore, this time the reporters frequently asked the atmosphere of Hipkins’ talks, while Hipkins frequently used the word "Warm and Constructive" to prevent reporters from adding oil and vinegar to damage the Sino -new relationship.

The above is enough to see that Western public opinion has been pressured by New Zealand officials and China to "which pots do not open". They have also tried to prove to New Zealand people that China is a "bully" and breaks the impression of both sides.

This may be able to explain why the New Zealand government holds the strange attitude of "Make or Break" before visiting China. The New Zealand side is actually stressful, which may mean that China has some patience and understanding of New Zealand.If China is still too sensitive to New Zealand’s "interference in China’s internal affairs", then New Zealand will be very uncomfortable with the splint gas of China and Western public opinion at the same time, and can only break up with China.If China has a greater strategic vision for the South Pacific or Western relations and tolerance for New Zealand’s "willful interference", it can make Western public opinion provoke the strategy of Sino -new relations, which will help maintain the Chinese people among the people of New Zealand in the New Zealand people.Image.

According to the understanding of the New Zealanders, politicians are only verbally instead of "interfered in China’s internal affairs" in their actions, and they did not hurt China how much interest in China. China should tolerate New Zealand instead of threats to trade.The Chinese are not acceptable to this, thinking that this is a meal.In fact, China may not only use trade influence to maintain diplomacy. The author believes that China ’s strategy to play a trade influence is when trade exists, not when threatening to leave.

Summarize

New Zealand, which is trapped in the quagmire of the economy, urgently needs the Chinese market, but can not digest many Chinese export products, and it is not capable of affecting the relationship between China and other Western countries in diplomacy. In the future, it should still deliberately make China difficult to make China.Therefore, the transaction visiting China seems to be not fair to China, but from the perspective of geopolitical situation, if China allows profit to give New Zealand, it should play a role in soothing and help to harvest a more friendly New Zealand for a long time.

According to the "New Zealand Asian Foundation" polls in June, the New Zealanders who "China believed to be a threat" in 2022 reached 58%, the first half in history, and the number of 2023 fell to 37%.In 2022, the Russia -Ukraine War and the China Safety Agreement caused New Zealanders to worry about China, but the time has disappeared these hostility. At present, New Zealand has been tortured by economic issues, and the approach of the China and Singapore economies is conducive to improving the relationship between the two countries.

It’s just that the future political environment is more delicate than the presented Chinese -new honeymoon period.The people of China and New countries should learn the lessons of new and new exchanges in the past, especially those who have vested interests in the Sino -Singapore trade need to be more energetic and distributed on public opinion and political voice, so that more New Zealanders are positiveUnderstand Sino -new relations to escort all the power of promoting China -Singapore trade and China -Singapore friendship, the relationship between the two countries can last long.

This article is an exclusive manuscript of the Observer Network. The content of the article is purely the author’s personal point of view. It does not represent the platform’s viewpoint. It is not authorized and shall not be reproduced. Otherwise, it will be held accountable.Follow the observer network WeChat Guanchacn, read fun articles daily.

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